The September Slump: What to Know, and How to make the most of slow seasons!

(Disclaimer: While we may already be at the tail end of September as this is published, the framework applies to other slow/shoulder months too, like October, March, and April. And I will update the numbers at the end of the month, but they should remain similar)

Every year, as summer fades, pools close, and school resumes, a familiar pattern hits vacation rental owners: the bookings slow down and for some a complete standstill. We call this the September Slump.

It can be jarring. After months of back-to-back bookings and full calendars, suddenly the inquiries stop, and those empty calendar squares start piling up. This year was no different.

Among 17 of our cleaning client properties we reviewed, the average September occupancy was just 30%, which equals only 9 booked nights out of 30. In comparison, our management portfolio of 38 listings averaged 40 percent (12 nights booked), which is significantly stronger than what most are seeing for this time of year.

So why does September drop off, and how can you beat it?

What the Data Shows About September Bookings

We looked closely at lead time data for September stays. Here’s what we found:

• 0-7 days out lead time account for 13.57% of bookings, where in August, the largest block was 0–7 days out at 22%

• 53.57% of bookings happened within 30 days of arrival (down from 67% in August)

• 16.43% happened between 60–90 days out (this was the single largest block for September)

• Nearly 46.43% of September bookings were made more than 45 days in advance (in August this was only 33%)

This shows two clear booking waves for September with a close 50/50 split:

• Advanced planners booking 2 to 3 months early

• Last-minute travelers booking inside 30 days.

This pattern explains why many owners feel blindsided. Most are riding the July and August high, where demand is strong and last-minute bookings are common. They don’t see the cliff they are heading toward. While they expect September to fill last-minute too, their calendars are sitting empty. By the time Labor Day hits, they panic and start dropping prices; but by then it’s too late to catch the first booking wave.

The Math That Matters: 30% Occupancy Means 9 Nights

If the average house is expected to hit 30% occupancy in September, that equals 9 booked nights out of 30.

With an average lead time of 45 days for our management houses, this means that by July 15th you should have already secured 4 to 5 of those 9 nights. If you aren’t halfway to your September target by mid-July, you’re already behind.

If your calendar is still empty in mid-July, it’s a warning sign. Your pricing, visibility, or marketing likely missed that first wave of planners. Once those early birds are gone, you are left relying solely on the smaller last-minute crowd to fill your entire month, which is risky.

This is why pricing and strategy for September needs to be dialed in by June. Waiting until August to “fix” September is far too late.

Price for Seasonal Demand and Book Early

When setting September rates in early summer, it’s crucial to account for the seasonal drop in demand. On average, rates fall about one-third from August levels. For example, if you’re at $300 per night in August, expect to start September closer to $200.

Many owners mistakenly try to hold their high August pricing into September. This usually leads to low booking activity early on, which causes panic later. By the time they lower rates, the early planners have already booked elsewhere, leaving them stuck chasing the smaller last-minute crowd.

Instead, aim to capture that first wave of planners 60 to 90 days out by setting realistic shoulder-season pricing no later than June. This early activity not only secures revenue upfront, it also signals demand to platforms like Airbnb and Vrbo, which can boost your ranking and drive even more bookings.

Once you miss that first wave, you enter a crowded last-minute market where other owners are panicking and slashing rates just to fill nights. At that point you’re no longer competing on quality, amenities, or photos, you’re competing solely on price. That’s a hard race to win and an easy way to hurt your revenue.

Think of it this way: some revenue is better than no revenue. You still have a mortgage and overhead to cover, and the odds of September being highly profitable are already low. The goal should be to protect your summer gains by securing any reasonable bookings you can early on rather than hoping for high last-minute payouts that may never come. I wrote an article that details this a bit more, you can view it here. https://explorepoconos.com/the-shocking-math-behind-why-vacant-nights-cost-you-more-than-cheap-rates-deep-dive-into-expense-and-revenue-correlations/

How to Avoid the September Slump

Knowing the booking behavior is half the battle. The rest is putting it to use.

1. Price Smart, and Do It Early

• • Start adjusting rates for September no later than June to catch the 60 to 90-day planners

• • Set rates at about 30 percent lower than August averages to match what the market expects

• • Pro tip: By June, weekdays in September should already be at the lowest price you are comfortable accepting, because they are the hardest to fill, but if you can scoop up a few extra weekday bookings you’ll ultimately net more revenue. By August, weekends should be at the lowest price you are comfortable accepting. 

• • Use dynamic pricing tools or manual adjustments to stay competitive

• • Offer early-bird discounts or limited-time promotions in early summer to generate buzz

2. Capture the Last-Minute Crowd

• • Once August hits, pivot toward shorter minimum stays and flexible check-in days

• • Offer small perks like free early check-in or late check-out

• • Make sure your listing photos, titles, and descriptions are fresh and eye-catching, because last-minute bookers skim quickly

3. Market to Off-Peak Travelers

• • September is prime time for couples, remote workers, and retirees who avoid summer crowds

• • Promote quiet getaways, foliage previews, or off-season discounts in your social media and email marketing

• • Consider highlighting weekend stays separately from weekdays, since weekends are more likely to fill while weekdays may need aggressive pricing

4. Watch Your Data, Not Your Feelings

• • Worry less about July and August, as those months tend to book up very last-minute at decent rates

• • Instead, focus on September and ensure you are actively managing your pricing well in advance

• • Track your own lead times and booking windows so you know when to expect bookings to appear, and avoid panicking too early

• • If you have past rental data, use it, nothing predicts your future better than your own history

The Bottom Line

September will always be slower than peak summer, but that doesn’t mean it has to be painful.

We’ve shown it’s possible to outperform the market. While 17 cleaning client properties averaged 30 percent occupancy (9 nights) this September, our management portfolio averaged 40% (12 nights) because we started adjusting our September pricing and marketing well before summer even hit, and we priced realistically for the season and the most likely type of guests.

That’s the real secret to beating the September Slump. You can’t stop demand from dipping, but you can position your property to grab every possible booking while travelers are still looking.

Start early, price smart, and treat September like its own season, not an extension of summer.